Suddenly Ready for War? German Pacifism in the “Zeitenwende”

Russia’s war of aggression and annihilation against Ukraine has forced Germany to fundamentally realign its defense policy since 2022: the Bundeswehr is to return to war-fighting capability and become the strongest army in the EU. This drastic change of course in defense policy and the new claim to military leadership are accompanied by calls for a transformation in societal attitudes towards greater military preparedness. Those who espouse pacifist views therefore fear a bellicist re-education of the German population and a shift away from pacifism. Those with a hawkish stance on defense, however, believe that the transformation of societal attitudes is not occurring rapidly enough. Both groups concur, however, on their fundamental assumptions regarding the prevalence of pacifism in the German population: prior to 2022, the majority of citizens were pacifists, and since 2022, this attitude has undergone a notable shift. This paper employs representative survey data to test these two assumptions and to provide an empirical measurement of pacifist attitudes in the German population over time. Five indicators of pacifist attitudes are considered: 1. Pacifism as a fundamental attitude towards foreign and security policy; 2. Pacifism as a rejection of the use of force by the military; 3. Pacifism as a fundamental rejection of the armed forces; 4. Pacifism as a rejection of a “policy of rearmament”; 5. Pacifism as a rejection of personal military involvement. The findings describe the extent and limits of the strategic cultural change in the German population and, at the same time, expose a number of false assumptions about the Germans’ relationship to the military.